报告人：Nurfadhlina Abdul Halim 副教授

报告题目： Rational Speculative Bubble Size in Gold, Hang Seng, S&P 500 and Nikkei 225 Index During Year 2008 to 2016

时间： 2026年9月15日（周二）10:00—11:00

地点： 数学楼2-2会议室

邀请人： 刘嘉

报告摘要：
A rational speculative bubble is a surge in asset prices that exceed its intrinsic value. Rational speculative bubbles are among the ascription which may lead to the collapse of an economic system. Rational speculative bubble cannot be created but it comes into existence when assets started to be traded. Financial rational speculative bubble and burst have negative effect on the economy and markets. Financial rational speculative bubbles are difficult to detect. This study aims to shows the size of rational speculative bubble in four markets, which are gold, Hang Seng, S&P500 and Nikkei 225 during year 2008 to 2016. In this study, generalized Johansen-Ledoit-Sornette model are used to find the size of the rational speculative bubble. Bubble detection is important for both sides of macro-economic decision makers and to the trader. Especially for a trading system that requires detailed knowledge about the time and the stage of the bubble burst.

报告人简介：
Dr. Nurfadhlina binti Abdul Halim is an Associate Professor at the Faculty of Science and Technology, Universiti Sains Islam Malaysia (USIM). She holds a Ph.D. in Mathematics from Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (UKM) and has over 22 years of academic and research experience, having previously served at Universiti Malaysia Terengganu and as a visiting scientist at Universitaet Duisburg-Essen, Germany. Her research specialization lies in Islamic finance (mathematical modelling), financial mathematics, and applied statistics. She has led and co-led multiple research grants funded by the Ministry of Higher Education Malaysia and industry partners, focusing on profit-sharing ratios, economic bubble forecasting, and robust optimization. She has supervised numerous postgraduate students and published over 70 journal articles, 10 books, and several invited/keynote presentations internationally. She currently serves as Head of the Risk & Analytics Research Group, FST International Coordinator, and Honorary Treasurer of PERSAMA, and was an academic advisor to Malaysia’s Ministry of Education.