报告题目：Inverse Method + Machine Learning for Disease Outbreak Forecasting with Underlying Culprits

报告人： Hao Wang， 加拿大阿尔伯塔大学教授

报告时间：2024年7月21日，15：00- 16：00

报告地点：数学楼423

摘要：

In this talk, I will introduce a novel inverse method to validate transmissibility assumptions and to explore overfitting issues. Mechanistic models have proven to be successful in predicting the short-term future and providing insight into the disease dynamics. However, they are based on our prior understanding of the world and hence, are only as "good" as that prior understanding, and do not extend to situations where the underlying mechanisms are unknown. Simple to advanced machine-learning models are developed fully from data and without incorporating prior human expert knowledge. Some of these models have shown an exceptional forecasting power; however, they often provide no intuition about the dynamics – the reason why they are often questioned and even avoided by mathematicians. A natural bridging between the two approaches would be to take a mechanistic modelling approach for those compartments of the disease spread whose governing dynamics are well-understood and a machine-learning approach for those other yet not-well understood compartments. If time allows, I will briefly discuss our new hybrid approach for disease forecasting and mechanism understanding.

报告人简介： Hao Wang (Howard)，加拿大生物数学首席科学家（Tier 1 Canada Research Chair in Mathematical Biosciences），加拿大阿尔伯塔大学终身正教授，阿尔伯塔大学数学生态学和传染病学交叉研究实验室主任。现任9个国际生物数学和动力系统主流杂志的主编或编委，已在高水平SCI期刊发表论文190余篇。在化学计量学，动物认知移动，环境污染毒素，微生物分解，物种入侵，传染病传播机制和预测等都做出了开创性和突破性研究。目前主导加拿大Alliance Missions等多个国家重点基金。荣获加拿大应用与工业数学会科研突破奖（CAIMS-SCMAI Research Prize），阿尔伯塔大学杰出导师奖，约瑟夫·米歇尔指导奖，美国数学生物科学研究所杰出青年学者奖，以及加拿大国家基金科研加速资助奖等。

报告题目：Nontrivial Traveling Waves of Phage-Bacteria Models in Different Media Types

报告人： 王振坤，中国科学技术大学特任副研究员

报告时间：2024年7月21日，16：00- 17：00

报告地点：数学楼423

摘要：

In this talk, I will introduce a spatial phage-bacteria model to describe the propagation of phages and bacteria in different types of nutrient media. Unlike existing models, we construct a more realistic reaction-diffusion model that incorporates inoculum and bacterial growth and movement, then rigorous mathematical analysis is challenging. We study traveling wave solutions and obtain complete information about the existence and nonexistence of nontrivial traveling wave solutions. Considering different propagation media, we extend the existence of traveling wave solutions from liquid nutrition model to agar model. Moreover, in the absence of bacterial mortality, we obtain the existence of a new traveling wave solution describing phage invasion. We attempt to explain the occurrence of co-transport by the existence and nonexistence of traveling waves, and screen out the key parameters affecting the co-transport of phages and bacteria according to the definition of critical wave speed. Theoretical and numerical findings will be utilized to identify reveal the effects of key parameters on the propagation of phages and bacteria.

报告人简介： 王振坤，中国科学技术大学特任副研究员。博士毕业于哈尔滨工程大学，主要研究方向为反应扩散方程及其在生物和生命科学中的应用，关注反应扩散方程的传播动力学研究，在SIAP, JDE等期刊发表论文多篇。目前主持国家自然科学基金、安徽省自然科学基金各1项。