报告题目：Assessing the Costs and Benefits of Non-Pharmaceutical Pandemic Measures

报告人： Mortaza Baky Haskuee，Fields Institute for Research in Mathematical Sciences

报告时间：2026年7月21日，16：30-18：00

报告地点：西安交通大学兴庆校区北五楼427

报告摘要： This study develops and calibrates an integrated epidemiological–macroeconomic framework to evaluate the costs and benefits of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) implemented during the COVID-19 pandemic. The analysis combines a stratified epidemic model with a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model to capture both the public health and economic dimensions of pandemic policy. In the epidemiological layer, public health measures are incorporated into an age-structured Susceptible–Infected–Recovered (SIR) model, allowing us to assess how containment policies influence social contacts and disease transmission dynamics. In the economic layer, a DSGE model is employed to examine the effects of containment-policy shocks on household consumption, labor supply, production, and other key macroeconomic variables. The model is calibrated using data from Ontario, Canada, and simulations are conducted to quantify the trade-offs associated with alternative containment strategies. The results indicate that NPIs substantially reduced infection rates and prevented a significant number of adverse health outcomes. At the same time, containment measures generated short-run economic costs through reductions in economic activity, employment, and output. However, labor market flexibility, remote work arrangements, and business adaptation mechanisms helped attenuate these negative economic effects. By linking epidemiological outcomes to the economic value of social contacts, the proposed framework provides a comprehensive approach for assessing the trade-offs between public health protection and economic performance. The findings offer insights for policymakers seeking to design effective and balanced responses to future public health emergencies.

专家简介：He is currently a research associate at Fields Institute for Research in Mathematical Sciences, and visiting researcher at Feishu, Shanghai working on optimization and sustainability. From July 2024-July 2025, He served as an associate researcher at the Department of Mathematics, University of Toronto, and visiting researcher at Fields Institute working on Stochastic Differential Equations and Robust Control. In January 2023, He granted an associated research fellow position at Fields Institute to contribute to Mathematics for Public Health (MfPh). In April 2021, He joined Advanced Disaster, Emergency and Rapid Response Simulation (ADERSIM), York University, as a visiting professor and research fellow and immediately in June, 2021, he joined Laboratory for Applied and Industrial Mathematics (LIAM) as a postdoctoral researcher to contribute to research projects in mathematical modelling of infectious diseases. His recent research has focused increasingly on the application of dynamical systems, stochastic modeling and control theory, differential games and robust control in addressing global challenges.