Title: Mathematical modelling of multiple infections & virulence evolution of pathogens

Time: 10:00 － 11:00 on June 19, 2024；

Meeting Room: Math Building 2-1 Room

Speaker: Mircea T. Sofonea, University of Montpellier

Abstract: Most species are exposed to several types of pathogens. While some evolutionary epidemiology models already incorporate pathogen polymorphism, few make the connection between epidemiology and within-host pathogen growth. As pathogen polymorphism can even occur within the same host, distinct pathogen types can interact in various ways and thus interfere with their transmission and therefore their evolution. The combinatorial and dynamical complexity explains why we still lack general predictions regarding pathogen evolution in such multiple infection contexts. Seeking for a general trend in virulence evolution, we model each dynamical level on which pathogen evolution relies by nonlinear coupled ODEs and random mutations. We notably use fixed point stability analysis to draw a typology of infection patterns that allows us to address virulence evolution under a general framework. As a result, we observe an unavoidable selection bias towards higher virulence when phenotypic mutations are small, wich is confirmed by further stochastic simulations.

Introduction: Mircea Sofonea (Junior) is currently an associate professor of epidemiology & evolution of infectious diseases at the University of Montpellier (PCCEI laboratory) and at the University Hospital of Nîmes (Southern France). He was trained a quantitative biologist (Institut Pasteur, Paris, 2013 ; École normale supérieure, Paris, 2014), has defended a PhD on multiple infections & virulence evolution (2017, Univ. Montpellier). After a year of post-doctoral research on spatial epidemiology (CNRS, France), he was recruited at the Univ. Montpellier, where he is in charge of epidemiology, spatial analysis and population modelling Master courses. In 2021, he obtained a degree in hospital infectiology at the Montpellier-Nîmes Faculty of Medicine, was appointed expert to the national health security agency (Anses) on airborne transmission and joined the office of the ANRS|MIE Modelling Coordinated Action, while interacting with major authorities and health actors (e.g. the French Parliament, the higher health authority (HAS), the national public health agency(SpF)). In 2022, he became the research director of a regional environmental health research funding institute (ExposUM, 46M€ 2022-2030) and obtained the Mantz Prize from the French society of anaesthesia & intensive care medicine. In 2023, he joined the Pole of Anaesthesia, Intensive Care & Emergency of the Nîmes University Hospital as a part-time hospital researcher. In March 2024, he defended his Habilitation (HDR) at the Sorbonne University Faculty of Medicine. For more information, please visit his web page at https://www.normalesup.org/~sofonea/rec.html.en.html

Inviter：Professor Fei Wang